1. I’ll be shocked if the No vote is less than 40%.
2. Don’t discount the ability of Irish people to tell pollsters what they think they want to hear. I really hope there is an exit poll.
3. Nobody does mental reservation like we do. It’s quite possible that the phrase “I’m not racist, I just hate blacks” was first uttered by an Irishman.
4. The vile and downright evil (not a word I use lightly) slur that there is a link between paedophilia and homosexuality is having a bigger effect than we like to admit.
5. Both sides have extremist wings. The No extremists want the same thing as the No moderates. The Yes extremists can’t make up their mind whether they want a Yes vote more than a crack at humiliating David Quinn et al.
6. If you think that all the No side are extremists then you’re part of the problem.
7. Some people involved in the campaign are not the gold-plated asset others think they are.
8. The social media campaign seems to be primarily made up of people agreeing with each other, or else having arguments with people who are actively opposed. It seems like there is little converting going on.
9. Yes campaigners who are out knocking on doors will play a disproportionate role in winning this.
10. A Yes pass with a low turnout will have its legitimacy questioned.
11. A No vote will not be a source of international humiliation. California voted No. California.
12. People are more likely to stay silent than admit they’re voting No.
13. Finally, even a No vote will have a positive effect, as people in rural nominally conservative constituencies discover that thousands of their neighbours voted Yes. This is an idea whose time has come. It’s no longer a question of if, but when.