Jason OMahony - Irish political blogger, Irish politics, EU politics

A nation once again? The British pull out of Northern Ireland: A Hypothetical.

Posted by Jason O on Mar 29, 2015 in British Politics, Fiction, Irish Politics

irish armyA long post: you might want a cup of tea with this one.

When the Taoiseach was told the news by the British Prime Minister, they say that his heart actually tightened and he was short of breath. He could have been forgiven if it had been true. England, the PM announced, was pulling out of the United Kingdom. After Scotland’s withdrawal the previous year a wave of introspection had swept south of the border, and suddenly English taxpayers were asking why they were paying billions to a bunch of ungrateful paddies. Enough was enough.

The truth, the PM said, is that we would have pulled out decades ago if it hadn’t been for the IRA. There’s nothing in Ulster for us, but we just couldn’t be seen to give in to the Provos. You know, spirit of the Blitz and all that. But now most English people don’t give a toss. It’ll be like Hong Kong: flag lowered, soldiers in big hats saluting, and that’ll be that. You’ll be the man who united Ireland, the PM said. You can thank me later.

The Taoiseach actually vomited when he was alone. His first reaction had been to beg the Brits not to leave. Where the hell was he going to find €10 billion a year extra to fund the north? Increase USC by two and a half times? But he couldn’t beg, because he knew that both MI5 and the dark shades brigade in Harcourt Street were both recording the conversation, and a leak of the prime minister of Ireland begging the Brits not to leave would get him killed. In Boston, quite literally.

Read more…


State of the parties.

Posted by Jason O on Mar 18, 2015 in Irish Politics

I was talking to someone recently about what short message each party will be pushing in next year’s election, going on what we know as of today. This is what we came up with.

Fine Gael: Stability, business, cut taxes, keep the Shinners out. Political reform is the exact same system FF had but with us in it.

Labour: We have absolutely no idea why you people aren’t cheering us from the rafters. As I said to Jennings, my under-butler, yesterday…

Fianna Fail: We’re much nicer than we used to be. Look, we have gays and Averil Power and everything. We’re not Fine Gael. We’ll give you money! Please! (sob!) We’ll do anything. (Unbuckles belt). For Jesus sake I’ve a mortgage!

Sinn Fein: We’ll take money off people you don’t know and give it to you. Brits Out? Lock up your daughters, eh! (tone turns menacing, glint in eye freezes over)

Greens: Polar bears?

Renua: So far, words like enterprise and dignity. And abortion hangs about in the background.

Alphabet Left: Slogan! Anger! Fury! Slogan! Indignation, etc.

Independents: Amazingly, I realised the party system was corrupt on the exact same night I lost a selection convention for FF/FG. What were the chances?


Is democracy itself the problem?

Posted by Jason O on Feb 18, 2015 in European Union, Irish Politics, Politics

Repost: Some years ago, a number of Irish politicians knowingly sentenced some their constituents to death. A report by experts pointed out that small local hospitals did not have the experience, capacity and technology to provide specialist care in the case of heart attacks. In effect, the report said that a person who had a heart attack on the steps of the local hospital stood a better chance of survival if they were flown by air ambulance to a regional hospital with a dedicated experienced unit who dealt with heart attacks every day.

A rational analysis of the report would have led to a debate about how to ensure that such an efficient air ambulance unit could be provided. Instead, in Ireland, the local deputies argued that every small local hospital should have such a cardiac unit, a proposal that was not only impractical but if attempted to be implemented would suck resources from other parts of the health service, thus resulting in unnecessary deaths from non-cardiac related illness.

Why did they do it? Why did these elected representatives knowingly campaign for a policy they knew would actually kill some of their constituents? Primarily, one would suggest, because their constituents demanded it, and in a democracy, the voter is always right. Even when he or she doesn’t read the report or just plain refuses to accept its findings because he or she simply don’t like them. The voter rules.

When the voter is then standing over the grave of his or her wife or husband who died on an operating table from a heart attack, in the local hospital, it’s not their fault. It’s the health service’s fault for not providing a world class cardiac unit in a tiny town. The local deputy will attend the funeral and agree that the wife or husband has been let down, despite having known this would happen from the expert report. And so on it goes.

In a democracy, the pointed finger beats rational fact every time.

Francois Hollande ran for the Presidency of France promising to reverse Sarkozy’s very modest pension reforms. How could any intelligent rational man looking at the demographic and life expectancy statistics conclude that people should be permitted to retire earlier? Pensions and increasing care for the elderly cost money, and so more people must work longer and pay taxes to fund those services. Is Hollande a fool, in the real sense? Probably not. But he knew that the voters didn’t care about the statistics. They stamped their foot in the Free Stuff From The Government aisle and had a tantrum, and would only leave with him if he promised them a young pension. Even though he must have known that it was the wrong thing for France’s long-term viability as a self sustaining nation.

It’s an issue we don’t want to confront: modern life, with modern expectations, is incredibly complicated. If you want to build a world class cardiac capacity, it takes years of planning, to bring and train the right people together, in the right place, with the right equipment. It takes long term planning. But democratic politics is becoming less and less tolerant of  long term planning. It’s attracting candidates who are thinking more and more short term, sometimes just to Friday afternoon or the following days newspapers, candidates who aren’t interested in anything that they can’t wave at their voters before the next election.

That’s not to say we should scrap democracy, of course. China does long term planning very well, but it also uses tanks against its own people. Democracy is still the most effective bulwark against tyranny and for that alone must be maintained. But as a guarantee of good, rational government it is becoming less and less effective.


Irish LGBT community to get tax cut in event of Marriage Equality No vote.

Posted by Jason O on Feb 12, 2015 in Irish Politics, Not quite serious.

The Irish Department of Finance has confirmed that in the event of a No vote in May’s Marriage Equality referendum legislation will be brought forward to give a special LGBT tax free allowance. A spokesperson said: “Our lawyers have been looking at this. Turns out that it may be unconstitutional to be denying people equal rights but expecting them to pay the same level of taxation for less services. So we reckon a 10% tax cut should level it out.”

When asked as to how the Revenue Commissioners would work out who is actually LGBT, the spokesperson was unclear: “Yeah, that’s an issue alright. You know what the Irish are like. If there’s money involved, half the country will come out. We’re putting together a formula to create a threshold, you know, how many Pet Shop Boys tracks do you listen to on Spotify, how you pronounce the name “Liza”, and whether you think Kim Catrall is marvellous or not. That sort of thing.”

The anti-Marriage Equality campaign, “They’re Coming! They’re Coming!” has called for a tax credit for heterosexual men. “Real men,” their spokesman announced, “not a bunch of fairies. You know, the sort of guys who work out in the gym every day, letting the sweat run down their manly hairy chests as they pull their tight tee shirts over rippling…” the spokesperson then asked to be excused.


Paul Murphy attacks Gardai for not beating him up.

Posted by Jason O on Feb 9, 2015 in Irish Politics, Not quite serious.

Socialist Party Anti-Austerity Alliance TD Paul Murphy has lashed out at the Garda Siochana for treating him courteously and respecting his civil rights following an arrest earlier today.

Addressing a group of working class supporters who didn’t seem to have to go to work, Murphy said: “This is typical of the right-wing oppressive forces at work in the Garda Siochana. If this had been Chile under Pinochet I’d be beaten to a pulp, speaking to you now in a shirt covered in my own blood.

Or possibly even dead and on an iconic teeshirt!

But no! This regime is so opposed to socialism that they refuse to cooperate, and instead gave me a cup of tea and as many chocolate digestives as I could eat, all paid for by your taxes if you please! The fact that the oppressive police of this state refused to oppress me, that they actually allow us to speak here without shooting us even with plastic bullets, shows how devious and oppressive they really are! If they truly supported the working class they’d be baton charging the working class to remind the working class that they were being oppressed by being baton charged!”

Deputy Murphy continued in this vein for a a good twenty minutes until Jennings, his butler, collected him and drove him home.


Sinn Fein/Tories call for descendents from “good families” to be given political privilege.

Posted by Jason O on Feb 7, 2015 in Irish Politics, Not quite serious.


Sinn Fein/The British Conservative and Union Party (delete as appropriate) have defended the rights of people descended from famous ancestors to be given special treatment above that of ordinary citizens not sharing a famous bloodline.

A spokesperson for the party said: “We are calling on people from these good families, who are entitled to this special treatment due to the superior blood in their veins, to be consulted on things like commemoration of national historical events/national legislation (delete as appropriate). It is only right that people whose key achievement in this regard is to have been born be sought out and asked their opinions with regard to these national matters. They should be given reserved seats on committees/in the House of Lords (delete as appropriate). I mean, it’s not like we want to copy those filthy republican practices of say, France, where all citizens are regarded as equal. This is a country where people must learn to respect their blood betters and know their place.”


Why do Irish social conservatives accept defeat so easily?

Posted by Jason O on Jan 22, 2015 in Irish Politics

It’s a political stereotype to paint conservatives as rugged and liberals as effete. The reality, at least in Ireland, is somewhat different. When Irish liberals lost the 1986 divorce referendum, they didn’t accept it as a settled matter, but came back again in 1995 and got what they wanted.

I sometimes wonder why Irish conservatives just accept that ratchet effect, that once another liberal victory is achieved they accept it and retreat? Take abortion. In 1992 conservatives fought against the right to information and the right to travel. They lost both, by margins similar to the liberal defeat in 1986. Why do they not put reversing the right to travel in particular on their agenda? Is it no longer what they claimed it was at the time? SPUC was amongst one of the most powerful and feared political movements in the country. What happened? Did they all become liberal? Or just die?

It’s the same with marriage equality. If there’s a No vote in May, I know that liberals won’t give up, but will come back and fight again. If there’s a Yes vote, will conservatives just accept another defeat and roll over? Probably.

I’m writing this as a liberal who is just plain curious as to why Irish conservatives give up so easy. Even the Irish conservatives I know would run screaming from a political grouping that advocated reopening the divorce or decriminalisation of homosexuality issues. Is it because they accept that a society can only go one way, that is, more liberal?


Splendid Isolation?

Posted by Jason O on Jan 21, 2015 in British Politics, European Union, Irish Politics, US Politics

Supposing, after the terrible events of 9/11, the United States had acted differently. Imagine if it had worked to improve its intelligence and internal security capacity, but not launched the War on Terror. Instead, it deployed special forces discreetly throughout the world to destroy Al Qaeda and hunt down Bin Laden.

Imagine now we lived in a world where the US and her allies had not invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. Afganistan is still a medieval backwater where women are treated appallingly, and Saddam Hussein or his odious sons are still in power in Iraq.

It’s not a pretty sight, save for the fact that The West has not turned two invasions into a recruiting bonanza for Islamic extremists. Thousands of allied soldiers have not died. Hundreds of thousands of civilians are not dead. Billions have not been spent on wars that have at worst not delivered what we hoped, and at best created new problems.

Are we actually that worse off? ISIS is not fighting in Iraq. The Arab Spring probably hasn’t happened. George Bush and Tony Blair have both left office in quite high esteem, two safe pairs of hands who steered The West through one of its’ darkest days.

It couldn’t have happened, of course, for the simple reason that the American people and its media would never have settled for anything short of a spectacular act of revenge. And I write that in a non-judgemental way, because it was a very human reaction to rise up and want to wreak vengeance upon those who inflicted such a terrible blow on the US.

But that’s the point. It was a hard blow, but a gnat’s blow in terms of the strength of the United States. Over 3000 people were killed, which is a savage figure. But when you consider that over 30,000 Americans die every year from gun-related deaths, without much panic by US politicians, you realise that the US, and the rest of the western world, can absorb quite a lot of pain.

America could have dismissed 9/11 with a wave of the hand and carried on if it had chosen to. That’s not to say it can dismiss threats to national security. It can’t. The next attack could be a biological weapon, and The West has to act to protect itself. But the US, and The West in general, should perhaps start considering that massive spectacular and visible retaliation does not make the US safer but creates a new generation of enemy recruits.

Imagine if Israel didn’t respond to every attack from Hamas. Imagine if Israel just stood firm and brushed off attack after attack, without bombing the Palestinians in retaliation. Yes, it would be hard, and counter-intuitive, and there would be those on Fox News screaming hysterically and quoting the bible and calling leaders wimps and cowards. But also imagine as days turned into weeks and weeks into months, of rockets being intercepted or landing, but the counter attack never coming. Imagine the anger in Hamas and Al Quaeda, as the US and Israel don’t play their part in the cycle, but instead openly mock the terrorists for their feebleness, for the fact that The West is so strong that their best efforts are as an ant to an elephant.

In short, imagine we told them that they’re just not important enough to invade or bomb. Yes, it would be hard, turning the other cheek. It would also mean turning a blind eye to terrible things done in Nigeria and Mali and Iraq and Syria. It would probably mean we’d need a more enlightened immigration policy to provide refuge for those fleeing those awful regimes, perhaps even paying another country to act as our surrogate reception area.

Would we really be worse off?


Housing: time for socialism?

Posted by Jason O on Jan 2, 2015 in Irish Politics

Despite being on the centre-right on most issues, I’m not an ideologue. There are issues where the left are right, and one of those issues, I believe, is housing.

We have, and not just in Ireland, a fundamental problem with providing housing, and it’s this:

There are two types of housing. The first is the simple provision of a home, something which must surely be close to a human right in the modern age. Everybody needs a roof over their heads. The problem is that the supply and demand of that form of housing is being perverted by the second form of housing. That is, the use of a dwelling as a store of wealth and appreciable asset.

That’s the problem right there. Now, before readers get upset, let me be clear about what I’m not saying. I’m not against private property ownership nor the right to speculate on the value of that property.

However, I do believe that they are a separate activity from the provision of a home, and should be treated as such.

The truth is that we cannot rely on the market to provide enough high quality supply of housing if the end goals of wealth storage and housing provision are intertwined. The former is making the latter unaffordable by dragging prices up. We see in New York, San Francisco and London formerly affordable working class districts becoming no-go zones to all but the very wealthy.

This is not good, and undermines confidence in the capitalist system. There is a near endless supply of capital available to price the great majority of the population out of formerly affordable parts of our cities, because that capital is seeking a different objective than those pursuing mere housing on a limited budget.

So what’s my proposed solution? Rent control? No. It doesn’t work, and ultimately leads to a reduction in available rental property.

One possible solution is the “middle-classisation” of public housing. That is, the provision, by the taxpayer, of huge amounts of high quality and affordable housing to all classes based on a percentage of income. We need to firmly declare, as a society, that public housing provision is not just for the low income sectors in our society but for anyone who wishes to have it.

It will mean, of course, that society will have to deal with the disgraceful neglect that exists in current public housing provision, and in particular the failure to address anti-social behaviour by neighbours. It means anti-social behaviour contracts that will allow the speedy removal by force of anti-social neighbours. It will mean each housing cluster having a full-time live-in US style supervisor with the ability to enforce the social orders, with security support if necessary. It’ll also probably mean higher public spending and therefore taxes to pay for it.

It doesn’t mean, by the way, that there would be no room for private sector involvement. Whilst the housing stock would be owned by the taxpayer, there’s no reason why its management shouldn’t be regularly tendered out to competitive private bids. In fact, a rental holding on this scale would almost certainly attract professional landlord companies into the Irish market, as opposed to the thousands of tiny amateurs currently in place. Large private rental unit holders may even be willing to be bound by the state rental agencies rules (and prices) and could probably participate too.

The overall objective would be to allow citizens the widest possible choice. Those who wish to own private property could still do so, in a free market made up of solely of others who share their goals, and let the market decide.

But more importantly, those who wish merely to have a home will find that goal decided by a housing supply driven purely by a desire for housing as opposed to investing in an asset, and that is essentially a good thing, surely?


Is this the stupidest government we’ve ever had?

Posted by Jason O on Dec 29, 2014 in Irish Politics

As the FG/Lab government heads into its last full year, a constant thought hangs around the dark cobwebs of my mind. I’ve written about it before, in an attempt to exorcise it, yet it remains. In my mind’s eye, I just can’t shake the image of  Day of The Count  2016 (we really should have a formal name for it) where scores of young first-term Labour and Fine Gael TDs will look on stunned not only as they lose their seats to Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein and others, but realise what it all actually means.

Many will have served originally as county councillors, frustrated at the lack of power, eager to get into the Dail and change the country. Now, five years later, they will be hated for making the decisions that saved the country, hounded out by many of the very people whose recklessness with public spending caused so many of the problems in the first place.

But even that’s not the worst bit: as they watch young Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail candidates take their seats off them, it’ll dawn on them that not only have they carried the burden of hate for making hard choices, but they have given FF and SF ALL THE POWER too. By not turning the Dail into a separate legislature with a chairperson answerable not to the government but the members,  by not reforming the Seanad, by not creating proper elected mayors with tax raising powers, they have put themselves right back where they started, the exception being that the people who have just beaten them won’t be as hated as they were because they made all the hard decisions for them.

Wouldn’t you think they’d have the reforms in place if only to be able to use them if they found themselves outside government once again?

By failing to change the political system when they have the chance, by failing to stand up to the elderly Don’t-Change-Anything/Know-Your-Place-Boy people who lead their parties, the young FG and Lab TDs, all staring into political oblivion, have revealed themselves to be either the most nobly self-sacrificing group in Irish politics, laying down their political careers so that Enda and Joan can feel comfortable,  or the most stupid group of people to ever collectively sit in Dail Eireann.

I know which one I think it is.

Copyright © 2015 Jason O Mahony All rights reserved. Email: Jason@JasonOMahony.ie.