There’s a lot of talk about national interest and patriotism around the Lisbon debate. There is also a factor at play which is that many soft Yes voters are uneasy about their vote being interpreted as an endorsement of a deeply unpopular Fianna Fail government.
Fianna Fail can solve this in one sentence: Promise a general election in November if there is a Yes vote. Overnight, it will remove the “Let’s kick the bastards.” temptation to vote No, and probably get the treaty through on 70%.
Ironically, it may even help Fianna Fail in the election, by showing them doing something selfless in the national interest. Because they’re that kind of people, aren’t they?