Jason OMahony - Irish political blogger, Irish politics, EU politics
 

Presidential Round Up.

Posted by Jason O on Oct 23, 2011 in Irish Politics |

As we head into the final stretch to polling day, let’s look not just at the likely result, but also the after effects.

First up, Sean Gallagher has already won, even if he isn’t elected president on Thursday. He has the potential now to become a national political figure. Having said that, he will face the paradox that if he chooses to remain in politics if not elected, possibly by contesting the European Elections in 2014, he may have to ponder a party affiliation. If he declares for Fianna Fail, it will surely damage him by confirming the doubts about his rupture with FF. Could he seek a nomination from Fine Gael, or possibly stay independent? Either way, whatever happens on Thursday, Sean Gallagher’s political options are now wide open.

Michael D. Higgins and Labour will be disappointed if he doesn’t win, but it won’t be a humiliation. After all, Labour’s first preference vote will probably exceed its general election tally.

Martin McGuinness will be happy enough with the result, but Sinn Fein’s failure to become the definitive party of protest during the campaign will also be a disappointment, given that the party had the potential to emerge as the highest polling party in a national election.

David Norris will probably be happy if he isn’t humiliated, and coming in fourth place would be respectable enough given the depths that his campaign has ended up. He will still win more votes in this election than during his entire political career to date. 

Gay Mitchell and Fine Gael have got to be dreading Thursday, where Fine Gael has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory mere months after an election win. Funnily enough, FG has form on this: having won the February 1973  general election, FG went into the May 1973 presidential election as the favourites, and were then promptly defeated by Fianna Fail. Having said that, Pat Cox must be having spontaneous fits of giggles.

Dana’s campaign never seemed to take off, if anything getting more surreal as it went on. Given her very respectable showing in 1997, coming third in a five candidate field with 15%, the possible margin of error result will be a humiliation. One would also wonder what happened to the Christian right vote?

Mary Davis must rue her entry into the race, yet another victim of the curse of Adi Roche and the temptation of wide but thin celebrity status. She will probably be surprised to be leaving the campaign with her reputation in a worse state than it was when she went in. 

Finally, the other winner of the election has got to be Fianna Fail, who have been vindicated by their decision not to contest the election, especially as Fine Gael look like they may end up losing over €200,000 into the bargain, whereas FF seem to just have to pay for the price of a phone call to Gay Byrne. 

3 Comments

Cynic
Oct 23, 2011 at 1:36 pm

Having said that, Pat Cox must be having spontaneous fits of giggles.

He should be heaving a sigh of relief.

He’d have done better than Mitchell – almost anyone would – but would still be struggling in the mid-teens, which would be perceived (in that alternate reality) as a disaster for Fine Gael.

The one chance FG had of winning the Presidency was with Mairéad McGuinness; Cox might not have gone out of his way to be obnoxious in the way Mitchell did, but he would be viewed as a grey-suited, grey-faced, Eurocrat at a time when grey-suited, grey-faced Eurocracy is especially unloved.


 
Brendan
Oct 24, 2011 at 3:32 pm

I think and hope that the so called Christian right will still vote for Dana. What’s to lose? You give her a vote, and then transfer to someone else.

Norris is the big loser really I think. Delighted Pat Cox didn’t get in – so smug he’d make you sick. And don’t think he’d have done any better than Mitchell. No one likes somebody joining a party to get elected.


 
Jason O
Oct 25, 2011 at 6:18 am

Or leaving one!


 

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