Fine Gael: continue to consolidate themselves as the dominant party of the centre-right, business, stability and the political status quo. That’s not to be disparaging, as that’s a considerable constituency in any western country, and set’s them up to be the largest party in the next Dail. Many of its younger deputies, though talented, have basically surrendered their reformist instincts to Enda’s no-change-if-possible conservatism. Having said all that, The Party of The Recovery is a powerful platform to stand on.
Sinn Fein: are rapidly becoming the anti-Fine Gael. Not as left wing as they pretend (their wealth tax has more loopholes than Irish corporate taxation law) but setting themselves up not so much as the party of the have-nots as the want-someone-elses. Again, a considerable constituency that could leave them in largest party status if they can get over the we’ll-shoot-you-if-you-disagree baggage.
Fianna Fail: I never believed that FF was finished in 2011, and I still don’t. One aspect of FF that the media is missing is the sheer talent outside the Dail party, especially amongst their younger councillors. FF is in the odd position of having a Dail party that sounds like a crowd of county councillors, whilst many of its young reps (Averil Power, Paul McAuliffe, Kate Feeney, James Lawless, Malcolm Byrne) sound like thoughtful legislators, and tend to be better informed too. The party still suffers from an inability to restrain its knee-jerk populist pandering, and a leader with the right vision but an unwillingness to enforce it on the party.
Labour: Joan Burton seems to be settling on a strategy of humility for the overblown promises of the Gilmore for Taoiseach era and quiet delivery for Labour’s public sector constituency. Given the circumstances, it’s not the worst plan.
The Alphabet Left: The SWP, PBP, SP, AAA and UL continue to take up space in parliament for what reason I can’t fathom. After all, is there anyone who believes that Richard Boyd Barrett or Joe will actually negotiate with anyone on forming a government? As the Dublin South West, Dublin European Parliament and Dublin West elections showed, the hard left save a particular level of ice-pickery for others on the hard left. Effectively a form of political graffiti.
The Independents: arguably the biggest threat to good government, primarily because we have no real idea what’ll happen if 25 odd (and some very odd) Ind TDs were to have a serious say in a hung Dail. Still, might be a few bob to be made on the telly rights.
The Greens: Ah Jaysus, look at their little faces. A good performance in the Euros and some good candidates elected in the locals throughout the country might give them a modest re-entry back into the Dail. Hard to see where Ryan will make his comeback though, given that Dublin South (Rathdown, whatever that is?) is now a three seater. Dun Laoghaire tricky too with the Ceann Comhairle and the People’s Front of Killiney performing strongly in the locals.