Jason OMahony - Irish political blogger, Irish politics, EU politics
 

Time for a Franco-German Federation?

Posted by Jason O on Nov 2, 2011 in European Union |

Given the surreal decision by the Greek prime minister to call an unwinnable (and uninterpretable) referendum, it’s time to start looking at plan C. If this is the way things are going, it’s fair to say that Greek membership of the euro is numbered. We just can’t have a reckless rogue state in the EU. Yet we haven’t the ability under treaty law to expel a member state, right? On paper, that’s probably correct. However, does a legal entity not have a right under natural law to defend itself from an unforeseen threat which is threatening to destroy that entire entity? Could the rest of the union not argue before the European Court of Justice that  Greek membership is now a clear and present danger to the union, indeed a threat to the very treaty itself?
But even that won’t be enough. It’s one thing to neutralise the Greek threat, but would that be enough for the bond markets, enough to reassure them that Greece was the exception to the rule, and the eurozone is now secure? What’s to stop them turning to Italy, now that the concept of departure from the eurozone is an option on the table?
That’s where Paris and Berlin have to be ready, with a new treaty creating a fiscal union, with tough centralised budgetary rules and membership open to any eurozone member or aspiring member. I’m not talking about a convention that will drag on for years, I’m talking about a treaty outside the EU that can be ready to go live with  a few tweaks, based around eurobonds and German fiscal leadership. The clock is ticking down.

1 Comment

Thirsty Gargoyle
Nov 7, 2011 at 1:20 am

I’ve been arguing with friends here, ranging across the spectrum of views about Europe, on what happens next. Most agree that even if things fall apart, there’ll be a new European Union, this one smaller, tighter, and probably stronger, based as it’ll be on more stringent membership criteria, only including the keenest countries, and knowing what mistakes not to make again.

That might just mean, to start with, a hard core of Germany, France, and the Benelux countries, with maybe one or two others. But still, that means a huge wealthy body with serious industrial, commercial, agricultural, and military power. The reality is that the need to integrate is too strong, and the French and Germans have known this for a long time.


 

Reply

Copyright © 2017 Jason O Mahony All rights reserved. Email: Jason@JasonOMahony.ie.