Reading some of the online hysteria about this morning’s Irish Times poll, there are a few points that I feel are worth considering:
1. It’s a single poll. Let’s not go mad, cracking each other’s skulls open and feeding on the delicious goo inside. If there are two or three polls showing Labour ahead, then we are in a game changing situation, but only then. Having said that, a poll like this can be very useful for Labour for helping build up that head of steam, in the same way in a byelection anti-govt votes start to coalesce around the strongest anti-govt candidate, in this case Eamonn Gilmore. Another poll like this and even sceptics like me have to start considering the Gilmore for Taoiseach concept. But do Labour have the infrastructure to deliver, or will they just pile up double and triple quotas in Dublin?
2. If there is a pattern, it’s for Fine Gael, in that it seems to confirm what many of us suspect: That FG’s rise in the polls is almost entirely to do with factors that have little to do with FG. Is it possible that FG’s lack of bottle to deal with the Enda issue is actually beginning to affect their standing?
