What if…China intervened in Gaza?

The People’s Republic of China task force departed the huge naval base in Djibouti just as the Chinese ambassador began to speak at the UN Security Council. The People’s Republic, he said, was no longer willing to tolerate the suffering of the people of Gaza. China was going to intervene directly in the conflict.

The global response was predictable.

Those states opposed to Israel, deftly sidestepped the novelty of China taking the high moral road and endorsed the audacious action.

The United States and some of its European allies condemned the announcement, and the US Navy put the Mediterranean fleet on standby.

In Tel Aviv, the Israeli cabinet met in crisis session. The far-right elements of the cabinet called on Israel’s defense forces to attack and destroy the Chinese task force before it entered the canal. The Chief of Staff (COS) of the Israeli military was less than enthusiastic about the proposal. He pointed out that satellite images provided by their American allies showed the Chinese task force was a very significant military force, centered around the People’s Republic’s newest aircraft carrier.

This was a very modern naval force, he said, and it was by no means guaranteed that if the Israeli Navy engaged it they would not come off second best.

In a less-than-subtle move, the Chinese ministry of defense held a separate briefing where it announced that it was converting a substantial number of China’s intercontinental ballistic missiles to conventional non-nuclear warheads.

This was, they said, a response to the United States’ Prompt Global Strike initiative, which allowed both countries the ability to deliver a powerful, highly disruptive, non-nuclear and unstoppable military strike upon any place on the surface of the Earth.

The Chinese task force cleared the Suez Canal and took a position off the coast of Gaza, Israeli ships and aircraft putting on a display of patrolling outside the self-designated Chinese defense perimeter of its fleet.

Both Israeli pilots and naval commanders, pointing out that their aircraft and vessels were clearly targeted by the advanced anti-aircraft and anti-ship defense systems of the Chinese fleet.

The Israelis could clearly see the amphibious landing craft accompanying the Chinese fleet being prepared to engage in landing Chinese forces in Gaza and once again these Israeli Prime Minister met in crisis meeting with his fellow ministers.

The choice was one recent Israeli leaders were simply not used to having to make. That is, the decision to take military action against the force that was at least military comparable, and possibly militarily superior to the forces of the state of Israel.

What was not clear to the Israeli government or indeed, to Israel’s delegation to the United Nations in New York was what was the actual plan of the Chinese. They were obviously about to deploy forces into Gazza, but with what intent?

The answer to this question was given once again by China’s UN ambassador. He announced that China was going to deploy significant troops and aid facilities to restore order to Gaza, to prevent attack on the Gaza civilian population, but also to suppress and remove the ability of Hamas to govern Gaza or indeed carry out attacks on Israel.

The public response to this proposal, even in the United States and in Europe was not entirely negative. Indeed many pro-Palestinian protesters were thrown into confusion as they did not exactly know whether they should be opposing or supporting the Chinese intervention?

On the one hand, the Chinese were going to stop the Israelis bombing Gaza. On the other hand, the Chinese were going to almost certainly inflict serious military action against Hamas. The left in the United States and European Union were in a state of confusion, not used to the idea of condemning China, a non-western country, for an act of colonialism, which is very most certainly was. One Irish member of parliament collapsed.

The COS confirmed to the Israeli cabinet that the Chinese force was preparing to land forces in Gaza, and that the navy and the IAF were ready to carry out anti-ship missile attacks on the fleet.

But they could not guarantee either that the attacks would stop the Chinese nor that the Israeli forces would not suffer huge casualties themselves. In the middle of the cabinet discussion the prime minister was summoned to a call from the US president who informed him that the Chinese president had spoken to him to inform him as to which ICBM silos were being readied for conventional launch against key Israeli military bases if the Israelis attacked the Chinese force, and that the US would be notified before launch so they could track them to ensure they were not being launched against the United States. The US President strongly registered the US unhappiness but stressed to the Israeli prime minister that the US would not retaliate militarily against China.

Elements within Likud were quick to pass the conversation to their allies in the US Republican Party and the upcoming presidential election campaign. The Republican nominee, not known for his deep thought or nuance, announced that if he were president he would immediately launch missiles against mainland China. Republican senators immediately endorsed the candidates position on the grounds that nuclear apocalypse was more desirable to being challenged in their primary from the far right. The junior Republican senator for Alabama expressed surprise at the news that China had ICBMs.

Chinese marines began their landing in Gaza as Israeli forces withdrew to a safe distance. With large beachheads secured, the PLA moved inland as army engineers began rapidly assembling aid and food stations.

Gazan civilians cheered the Chinese soldiers as they progressed into the city. Hamas fighters withdrew, as their leadership furiously debated how to react to the new developments, especially as many Gazans seemed just as happy to see them withdraw as the IDF.

Civilians rapidly began to gather at the Chinese aid centres, where they received prompt and efficient medical and other aid services. Gazans were shocked to discover that the Chinese were not charging them for aid materials as their Hamas predecessors had. Indeed, the civilians started booing and mocking the Hamas fighters kept out of the aid areas by heavily armed PLA troops.

As more and more of the area was taken over, and Hamas fighters were disarmed on sight by the PLA, the Hamas leadership, meeting in their luxury hotel in Qatar, decided that enough was enough, and that the Chinese intervention was just another imperial superpower. They ordered Hamas fighters to attack the PLA forces. 

Hamas found two challenges. The first was that the PLA fought back with massive firepower, inflicting casualties on them. Secondly, and more worrying for Hamas, was the fact that many of the civilians preferred the PLA. The Chinese troops had been specially trained for a softly softly UN peacekeeping approach, and were respectful to the civilians, with a special corps of Arabic speakers deployed with active units. Areas cleared out by the PLA of Hamas fighters found they didn’t want them back, and found the appointed PRC administrators to be straightforward and more importantly not looking for constant bribes. Hamas fighters trying to quietly reestablish control found themselves being identified and arrested by PLA troops and physically detained. The Chinese general commanding the force casually suggested that if they had too many Hamas detainees they’d just ship them back to China, a threat which significantly depleted the numbers of Hamas volunteers willing to infiltrate the expanding Chinese zone.

For their part, the Israelis quickly adapted to the new situation. The PLA prevented their forces from interfering in Gaza, and were following up any intelligence provided by the Israelis on hostages in good faith. Additionally, they were preventing Hamas from launching rocket attacks on Israel as PLA drones flooded the skies and either guided fast moving ground units into rocket sites before they could fire, or hit them with air to surface missiles themselves.

The Chinese were also playing a masterful media game. The new Chinese foreign minister was tall, handsome and in his early forties. He was also American educated, his father having been a minister under Deng Xiaoping, and spoke perfect English with a soft New England accent. Neatly packaged clips of PLA forces engaging Hamas fighters were soon in the US and Israeli social media landscape, and having an effect. Europeans saw clips of Gazan refugees being fed and clothed by UN and other aid agencies under the protective eye of Chinese blue helmets with UN symbols on their helmets. The UN Secretary General had protested at the image, as the UN Security Council had vetoed the Chinese intervention, but Beijing put them on anyway. 

The Israelis were quite pleased with the solution, which kept Gaza down without them having to act. When more Chinese ships started to arrive, with engineering brigades to start rebuilding Gaza, the Israelis shifted uneasily, especially as the Chinese unveiled their plans for a huge new port in Gaza.

But the Chinese FM’s statement that China was concerned about the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank caused yet another panicked Israeli cabinet meeting. The formal statement given by the dapper Chinese minister, that Israel could simply not build any new settlements, sent the far-right in the Knesset into apoplexy, with one leader screaming at the prime minister to launch a nuclear attack on the Chinese fleet. The PRC issued an ultimatum: they were watching the West Bank, and if there was more settlement, or orchestrated violence against Palestinians by existing settlers, then China would intervene.

As election day in the United States approached, the president tried to calm the situation as his Republican opponent escalated it, promising that it China put troops into the West Bank the US would also deploy US Marines in support of the settlers. This caused rioting in Europe, the US and across the Middle East.

When Shin Bet informed the cabinet that a large group of settlers were gathering to attack a Palestinian village, the PM ordered the IDF to stop them. The far-right national security minister countermanded the order and ordered the army to help the settlers. The COS then countermanded that order and informed the PM, which caused an actual fist fight in the Israeli cabinet room when the centrist foreign minister broke the national security minister’s jaw.

The IDF held off the settlers.

The Israeli government collapsed as Americans went to the polls, and left-wing Democrats refused to back the president over his Gaza policy.

He narrowly lost Michigan and Wisconsin (despite a 4m winning margin in the popular vote) and the electoral college. Much to their fury, the new president-elect stopped taking phone calls from his far-right Israeli allies.

In a long-style interview with the BBC, the Chinese foreign minister announced that with nearly all of Gaza now stable and under PLA “supervision”, and aid and rebuilding strongly underway, he felt it was time for the people of Gaza to vote in free elections for a representative council to work with PRC administrators. It would not have executive power, he added, but we will clearly listen to it.

When challenged on the irony of China calling for UN-run free elections, the minister smiled. Let me be clear, he said. China does not believe western democracy is inherently bad, just not for large countries. It seems to work fine for small countries like Ireland or Denmark and hopefully Gaza. It just doesn’t seem to work well for larger more complex countries, as the riots in the United States would underline.

Would Hamas be allowed run in the elections? The BBC man asked.

Oh yes, of course. But only on an equal basis with every other party. And we’ll help: we are currently funding and training a new Good Government Party made up of many good and honest Gazans who have helped us with our aid and recovery efforts. A vote for that party would be a great vote of confidence in the resources the Chinese people are investing in Gaza.

One more thing, minister. Is it true the new port will be so big it can host aircraft carriers?

And cruise liners, the minister replied. Don’t forget the cruise liners.

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